Updated 8/24/19, Seaborn Hall – This page is still under construction.

(Start Here First To Understand The Investment Arena Big Picture)

 

Investments, in general


How To Know Who To Trust With Your Money: The Fiduciary Pyramid, Seaborn Hall, Advisor Perspectives

fiduciary, trust, money

Fiduciary Pyramid: Who
Do You Trust?

How to Know Who To Trust With Your Money II: A Visual Illustration of Fiduciary, Seaborn Hall, Advisor Perspectives

How The Economic Machine Works, Ray Dalio, You Tube

The Bernie Madoff Fraud: Five Lessons For Investors From The ‘Wizard Of Lies,’ Seaborn Hall, Advisor Perspectives

Evaluating The Arguments For The Dollar’s Demise, Seaborn Hall, Advisor Perspectives

How Likely Is Hyperinflation In the U.S.?, Part Two, Seaborn Hall, Advisor Perspectives

What Is A Bubble? CNBC

CS Commentary: Technically, a bubble should be seen as an unsubstantiated increase in price over value. Therefore, Bitcoin cannot be called a bubble because it is almost impossible to compute value of cryptocurrencies at present. Crypto’s are a speculative investment. Speculative investments can see bubble-type activity and trading, but technically are not bubbles. If a bubble ‘bursts’ it does not return to its previous price. Crypto, again, defies this definition thus far.

Why Ken Fisher Hates Annuities, Jane Wollman Rusoff, Think Advisor; Also see, Dispelling The Myth Of 10% Returns, Ric Edelman

Percentages Of Upper, Middle, And Lower Income In U.S.

Longest Bull Market In History May Have Room To Run, Alex Viega/AP, Washington Post; Also see, The Longest Bull Rally In History? Take A Closer Look, Bloomberg

Also see, Longest Bull Market In History? Not So Fast, William Watts, Marketwatch; Also see, Five Lessons From The Longest Bull Market In History, Yahoo Finance; Also see, Recapping The Historic Bull Market, CNBC

Are You In The American Middle Class? Find Out With This Income Calculator, Pew Research

JP Morgan Defies Bulls Tells U.S. Investors To Cut Stocks, Mark Kolakowski, Investopedia

CS Commentary: This contrarian call is probably not unexpected, after all, sell when everyone is greedy and buy when there is blood in the streets, however, not everyone is greedy yet. This is mostly likely a call influenced by political expediency that sees the Democrats retaking Congress with the mid-terms. Not likely in CS’s opinion. Stay with U.S. stocks but average into emerging markets over the next 2-3 years.

Steve Keen, Leftist Economist, Says U.S. Recession In 2020, Bloomberg

Ray Dalio On The Economy And A Coming 2020-21 Downturn, Business Insider

CS Commentary: Dalio continues Keen’s discussion of asset and income inequalities and places them in a larger context with some suggestions for ways to change.

Anthony Robbins on Investing For The Average Investor, Forbes

Gold Stocks: Most Discounted Level In 20 Years

The Long View On Diversified Investing

Various Interviews With Ray Dalio, Most Successful Investor Of All Time, You Tube

Gold’s Bottom Could Be Investor’s Lost Treasure, Frank Holmes, Advisor Perspectives;

Will Mid-Term Elections Sink The Stock Market? Here Is What History Says, William Watts, Marketwatch; Also see, Do Markets Care About Mid-Terms? Kara Ng, Russell Investments

Billionaire Ray Dalio Shares A 3-Step Formula For Anyone To Start Investing, Ali Montag, CNBC

Ray Dalio’s Asset Allocation Formula

How To Find A Financial Advisor, Michaela Cavallaro, Barron’s

Why Is America So Rich? (video, right) Prager U

Jeremy Siegel: The Market Is Cheap On A Long Term Basis, Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives

Are We Headed For Recession? Big Four Economic Indicators, Jill Mislinski, Advisor Perspectives

A Long Term Look At Inflation, Jill Mislinski, Advisor Perspectives

How The Real Estate Cycle Works , Phillip Anderson, You Tube

CS Commentary: In 2012 Phillip J. Anderson predicts exactly where the US stock markets and real estate markets will be today. Also see, Phillip J. Anderson’s Explanation Of The Real Estate Clock, portphillippublishing.com

Salary Required For Median Priced Homes In Major Cities

The Real Estate Clock Has Proved Accurate Over 200 Years Except For World Wars

Why 2019 Could Be A Tough Year For Home Buyers And Sellers, Jade Scipioni, Fox Business

Good Chance Of Recession By 2020 (video, left), Fox Business

Why The Market Blow Up? Varney & Co, Fox Business

Common Crypto Scams And How To Avoid Them, Jack Dossman, Medium

Why Did The Crypto Meltdown Occur? CNBC; CS Commentary: A good overview of the current state of the crypto markets.

Here’s How Blockchain Will Impact Your Life In 10 Years, Darla Mercado, CNBC

Critics Say Bitcoin Is Like Tech Stocks, Why Experts Disagree And Its More Like Gold, NewsBTC

The Economy


A Long Term Look At Inflation, Jill Mislinkski, Advisor Perspectives;

Also see, Inflation: An X-Ray View Of The Components, Jill Mislinkski, Advisor Perspectives

The American Dream, Part One – Debt Slavery, You Tube

Destroying America: The National Debt Predicted To Hit Alarming Heights, Michael Snyder, Charisma

Stock Market Performance Around Mid-Terms

CS Evaluation: Here is another alarmist tome from Snyder who takes real facts and spins them in a way that creates unnecessary fear and anxiety. In so doing he gives no sense of whether and when the timing on addressing debt will be critical. Let’s break it down…Continue reading here, updated 10/16/18

US Stock Market Crash Is Long Overdue But People Are Oblivious, Peter Schiff

CS Commentary: CS offers this as a contrary view; we don’t expect a recession until 2020-21 and don’t expect another great market crash until the mid to late 2020’s. Peter Schiff is good on investment basics but has been wrong many times over the last decade since the 2008 crash and has been pretty much a one note forecaster predicting another stock market crash that whole time.

Why There Will Be A Recession In 2020, Guggenheim Investments, Advisor Perspectives

The Real Estate Clock Has Proved Accurate Over 200 Years Except For World Wars

Reason For Stock Market Volatility And What To Do Now; Future Of Bitcoin, Fox Business

CS Commentary: Great example of how political leanings affect your market views – he believes Dems win House in November, therefore he believes markets have topped.

What To Expect From Economy In The Next Year, Mornings With Maria, Fox Business

What Is GDP? CNBC

Here’s Why The DOW Will Hit 40,000 By 2025, David S. Gilreath, CNBC

Yield Curve Inversion And Recession


The Yield Curve Inverted – Here Are 5 Things Investors Need To Know, William Watts, MarketWatch

CS Commentary: Facts to know: The 3 month/10 Year Treasury spread is the most important indicator, though many media pundits will follow the 2 year/10 year. Inversion needs to be sustained for 10 straight days to be an accurate predictor – it was not sustained for more than a few days this time. Recession typically occurs 1 year to 18 months following a sustained inversion – and the stock market can continue to go higher during that period. Though yield curve inversion has preceded the last nine recessions, inversion can occur without a recession following.

Also see, The Inverted Yield Curve Is Good News For The Dow Jones And The Economy, IBD

Primary Inversion Signal: 3 Month/10 Year Treasury Spread Inversion

Inversions Occur Without Recessions/Average Time After Inversion Is 14 Months

Here’s When The Yield Curve Becomes An Actual Danger Signal, William Watts, MarketWatch;

Also see, This Time Yield Curve Suggests Market Has Already Peaked, According To Analyst, Chris Matthews, MarketWatch

Cryptocurrencies


The Bitcoin ‘Bubble’

Are Cryptocurrencies The Best Investment Opportunity Of The Next Decade? Part II, Seaborn Hall, Advisor Perspectives

Why Bitcoin Is Not In A Bubble, Seaborn Hall, Advisor Perspectives

Quote: “Bitcoin is the face of blockchains and digital currencies. It might be called part stock, part emerging currency, and part commodity. As a kind of stock, Cryptocurrencies have become – to retail investors – the de-facto face of the blockchain they represent, even though at times, a direct correlation cannot be shown.”

Where Is Bitcoin In The History Of The World’s Greatest Bubbles? Niklas Goke, Medium

Future Wealth: What A NASDAQ VP Told Me About The Future Of Cryptocurrencies, Jeff Brown, Townhall

Internet Users Versus Approximate Present Saturation Level Of Crypto

Cody Willard And Gerald Celente Talk Market Crash, Gold Bottom, and The Future Of Cryptocurrency, You Tube

CS Commentary: The non-political portion starts at about 6:00. A libertarian perspective that we don’t entirely agree with. You can’t fit the founder’s notion of American isolationism on the world today and ‘direct democracy’ is non-Constitutional and would kill America, founded purposely and wisely as a ‘limited democracy’ and a Republic.

One Of Multiple Bitcoin Bear Markets

A Brief History Of Bitcoin Bear Markets, Yannos/Ndinga, Medium

How To Secure Yourself Against Bitcoin Theft In 10 Minutes, SFOX, Medium

The Top 10 Cryptocurrency Blogs & Websites You Should Follow, Cryptoclarified

The History Of Bitcoin In One Chart, Kevin Werbach, Medium

Cryptocurrency 101, Ben Yu, Medium

CS Commentary: A good article for the basics on crypto relative to money, in general, but some warnings…See this link for more.

The Latest Posts


The Power Of Compounding Will Help You Double Your Money Again And Again, Josh Brown, CNBC; See video at this link

The Use And Misuse Of The CAPE Ratio, Larry Swedroe, Advisor Perspectives

Podcast: The Social Security Trust Fund Will Be Depleted By 2035, Ric Edelman

Explosive Growth: Facebook Coin Could Triple Crypto Users, The Crypto Consultant, Medium; Also see, Facebook’s Libra Coin Backed By Credit Card Companies And Big Business, Medium; Also see, What Facebook’s Cryptocurrency Means: 6 Predictions, Caitlin Long, Forbes; Also see, Facebook Libra Coin Will Help Achieve Mass Adoption Of Crypto, Michael K. Spencer, Medium

How Should Investors Position Their Portfolios In This Economic Environment? (video, right, Fox Business

The 5 Laws Of Human Stupidity And How To Be A ‘Non-Stupid’ Investor, Lance Roberts, Advisor Perspectives

What Everyone Should Know About Facebook’s Foray Into Cryptocurrency, Steven Ehrlich, Forbes

Facebook’s Libra Crypto Explained (video, left), TechCrunch

Facebook’s Libra: A Summary Explanation In Less Than 2 Minutes (video, right), Washington Post

How Much Cash Should I Keep In The Bank? Tim Parker, Investopedia

Americans Have ‘Incredible’ Misconceptions About Social Security, Britannia De Lea, Fox Business

Why The United States Needs To Encourage Americans To Own Gold, Sean Fieler, The Federalist

The 25 Best Places To Retire In 2019, William P. Barrett, Forbes

Goldman Sachs Buys United Capital For $750 Million? What Does It Want? Britton/Thrasher, Wealth Management

Hong Kong And Its Monetary Authority (HKMA) Is Headed For A Major Currency Crisis

The Quiet Panic: Kyle Bass’s First Investment Letter In 3 Years (Is Hong Kong About To Crash?), Zero Hedge

China Trade By The Numbers, US Census

CS Commentary: China is about 17% of total US trade, but only 7% of our total exports. Meanwhile, the US imports over 20% of China’s goods relative to other countries. China is the US’s largest trade deficit – over $400 billion a year at present and it has consistently risen over the years. In 2018, the US exported $120 billion and imported $539 billion from China. This, among other things, gives the US significant leverage in trade negotiations with China.

Dollar Cost Averaging Could Earn You Twice As Much, CNBC

America’s Biggest Economic Challenge May Be Its Demographic Decline, Neil Irwin, NY Times

CS Commentary: Harry Dent may have been one of the first to sound the alarm on this problem as far back as 2008-09, but he largely mis-forecasted when and how the problem would become reality, suggesting that there would be a second major stock market collapse soon after 2008 – this never occurred. Has immigration, central bank manipulation, and globalization solved some of this problem in ways that Dent could not foresee? Perhaps not, but only time will tell.

How SIFMA, FSI, FINRA, And The SEC Conspired To Doom The Advisory Profession, Ron A. Rhoades, Advisor Perspectives

CS Commentary: SIFMA stands for The Security Industry Financial Marketing Association. FSI stands for Financial Services Institute. FINRA stands for Financial Industry Regulatory Association, a Congressionally authorized association that regulates broker-dealers. The SEC is the Security Exchange Commission, an “independent federal government agency responsible for protecting investors, maintaining fair and orderly functioning of the securities markets, and facilitating capital formation (Investopedia).

This is the most important article we have published here in sometime, yet, it will be too long and technical for many of our readers. We encourage you to read the introduction and the conclusion. The bottom line here is that the current SEC has, once again, been corrupted by compromise, lobbying and the broker-dealer industry – and the fiduciary landscape may be, once again, about to change. That is, be compromised. At present, investors can rely on the fact that RIA’s (Registered Investment Advisors) are held to a higher Fiduciary standard – this may not be the case much longer if the SEC has its way. For a shorter and simpler explanation of what the fiduciary standard should mean, see the Common Sense Interpretation-Money page and our articles on the Fiduciary Pyramid.

The Difference Between The Economy And The Stock Market (video, right), CNBC

After Two Of The Greatest Bull Markets In History, Why Are Investors So Broke? Lance Roberts, Advisor Perspectives

70% Of Wall Street Believes Trump Will Be Re-Elected, Fox Business

China Militarizing Space: They Are Ahead Of US In Space Race, Fox Business

Gundlach: We Are On The Road To A Large Debt Problem, Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives; Also see, Does The US Debt Matter? (as of 7/28/18), CNBC; Also see, What Would Happen If The US Stopped Paying Its Debt?, Infographics; Also see, How To Solve America’s Spending Problem, Prager U

Live 24/7 World Debt Clocks

CS Commentary: This may not be exactly in sync with the US Debt Clock, here but it is close as of 2/14/19.

Is The American Economy Underperforming Or Not? AIER

Why Reported Inflation Is So Low, John H. Morse, Advisor Perspectives

Here’s How Blockchain Will Impact Your Life In 10 Years, Darla Mercado, CNBC

How The Real Estate Cycle Works , Phillip Anderson, You Tube

CS Commentary: In 2012 Phillip J. Anderson predicts exactly where the US stock markets and real estate markets will be today. Also see, Phillip J. Anderson’s Explanation Of The Real Estate Clock, portphillippublishing.com

Common Crypto Scams And How To Avoid Them, Jack Dossman, Medium

Why Did The Crypto Meltdown Occur? CNBC; CS Commentary: A good overview of the current state of the crypto markets.

How Do Airlines Price Tickets? (video, right), CNBC

What Makes A Financial Advisor a True Fiduciary? Mindy Diamond, Wealth Management

CS Commentary: Good Financial Advisors and RIA’s have been talking about these concepts for at least a decade. Everyone else is just catching up.

What Designations Does Your Financial Advisor Need?, Peter Lazoroff, Forbes

CS Commentary: Though this is helpful in explaining the top 3 designations to look for in the investment arena, we emphatically disagree that your financial advisor needs any of them to be competent and have your bests interests at heart. Perhaps of all three, the CFP is the most important – but not even it assures that your advisor is a fiduciary that limits conflict of interest, that they work for a good company, particularly a RIA, or that they have your best interest at heart. An AIF at least assures that they understand the demands and criteria of a fiduciary and will at least attempt to ensure low conflict of interest in all that they do. Beyond that, you should look for detailed knowledge about the investment arena, which includes how portfolios are put together to achieve your individual goals and the best way to administrate your overall plan, an ability to simplify it and make it understandable to you, and look at who they work for and where the firm fits in the Fiduciary Pyramid. Also, beware if the person selling you is also the person directly managing your money. No one has the time or expertise to do both well. Bottom line: Designations – like MBA or CFA – are important for the person who directly manages your money and those on the investment committee in your advisor firm, or who head up the funds where your money is allocated. Your advisor is more of a salesmen or direct point of contact and may use his/her designations to impress. Don’t be fooled.

Stanford Analysis Pokes Holes In FINRA Broker’s Check, Dianna Britton, Wealth Management

Dow Jones Single Largest Point Gain In History: Milken Institute Expert Bill Lee Brings Balance To Current Market Events, Fox Business

This Still Looks Like A Stock Market Correction – Not Something Worse, Mark Halbert, MarketWatch

Ray Dalio’s Hedge Fund Posted 15% Gain After Calling Economic Slowdown, Leslie Picker, CNBC; Also see, Dalio Says Go Counter-Cyclical, Market Realist; Also see, Dalio and Buffet: What To Do When Stocks Get Battered, Market Realist

Why So Many Middle Class Americans Have No Savings: ‘Half Of America Will Have To Compromise On Their Dreams (video, left),’ PBS

All The Financial Advice You’ll Ever Need Fits On An Index Card (video, right), PBS

New Research On The Value Of Global Diversification, Larry Swedroe, Advisor Perspectives

Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates Hedge Fund Leads In Net Gains For All Time

Here Are 3 Things You Can Do After Historic Market Volatility, Edelman Financial

Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Cements Spot As Top Performing Hedge Fund Of All Time, Anneken, Tappe, MarketWatch

Ray Dalio: ‘Significant Risk’ Of Recession In 2020 – Blackstone Disagrees, Melanie Kramer, CCN

The Top 5 Reasons For The Current Market Correction, Updated 1/05/19, Seaborn Hall, Common Sense

CS Commentary: With the market correction again in past weeks, and the slight uptick this week, this article continues to be relevant. Updated, with new charts.

The Dark Underbelly Of Cryptocurrency Markets, Nic Carter, Medium; Also see, Irrational Exuberance Revisited: Is Crypto The New Dot-Com Bubble? Krill Bryanov, Cointelegraph; Also see, A Reminder: If You Had Purchased $100 Of Bitcoin In 2011 Here Is What Its Worth Now, Damian Davila, Investopedia

How To Avoid A Shark Attack, Charles Schwab Global Outlook, Jeffrey Kleintop

What Is 5G?, CNBC; Also see, A Look At 5G And How It Will Change Our Lives, CBC News

Why Investors Should Stick With ‘Buy And Hold,’ Barry Ritholtz, Wealth Management/Bloomberg

Will The U.S. Economy Continue To Improve? (video left) The Intelligence Report, Trish Reagan, Fox Business

What Is FinTech? (video right) CNBC

How To Make A Horrible Boss Your Ally – A Navy Seal Explains, Zameena Mejia, CNBC

How To Trade Foreign Stocks, Prableen Bajpai, Investopedia

Larry Kudlow: Stock Market Corrections Come And Go (video, left), Varney & Co, Fox Business

Is Trump Right About The Fed? Mornings With Maria, Fox Business

Should You Be Out Of The Market? No, Mornings With Maria, Fox Business

10 Investor Takeaways From The 2018 IMF/World Bank Meetings, Lupin Rahman, PIMCO, Advisor Perspectives

Stock Market Up 6 Months Straight And Should Keep Going If History Is A Guide, Fred Imbert, CNBC

How To Know Who To Trust With Your Money: The Fiduciary Pyramid, Seaborn Hall, Advisor Perspectives

How to Know Who To Trust With Your Money II: A Visual Illustration of Fiduciary, Seaborn Hall, Advisor Perspectives

What Is Blockchain? (video right) CNBC

Our Favorite Chart: As Long As 10 Yr Yield Under 5% Stock Market Up 90% Of Time

The Bernie Madoff Fraud: Five Lessons For Investors From The ‘Wizard Of Lies,’ Seaborn Hall, Advisor Perspectives

Evaluating The Arguments For The Dollar’s Demise, Seaborn Hall, Advisor Perspectives

How Likely Is Hyperinflation In the U.S.?, Part Two, Seaborn Hall, Advisor Perspectives

Are Cryptocurrencies The Best Investment Opportunity Of The Next Decade? Part II, Seaborn Hall, Advisor Perspectives