Seaborn Hall, published 2/27/20, updated 7/03/20, 3:37 p.m. pdt
CS Coronavirus Update
Dr. Oz’s Coronavirus Survival Guide (video, right), Fox Business
Coronavirus – Bottom Line
This is a global pandemic at present. We do not believe this will be a global pandemic that sweeps the world and kills millions of people, like the Spanish Influenza Epidemic in 1918.
According to Vice President Mike Pence, ‘The Coronavirus is about 3x more contagious than the flu.”
This time is different, but the measures that have been taken, particularly in the United States by President Trump, will likely put a limit on the spread of the virus. The infections and deaths caused by the virus still do not even begin to approach the devastation of the Swine Flu from 2009 to 2010.
However, Covid-19 is scary because of all of the uncertainty it creates.
- One, it can be severe and fatal to those over 65 with chronic conditions. It is a severe form of the flu that affects the lungs. This scares people.
- Two, it spreads easily – more easily than past viruses or flus. It can be spread by asymptomatic people who may not have symptoms themselves for between five and fourteen days. It may also live longer – for a day or more in some cases – on surfaces than previous viruses.
- Third, though there are reports this virus is not dangerous or severely symptomatic to children, the reports say that children can be carriers.
- Fourth, there is at least one report, from Fox New’s Dr. Mark Siegel, that dogs may be carriers of the virus, even in their fur.
- Fifth, there is a report that once you have the virus and recover it is still possible to be infected with the virus again. There does not appear to be complete immunity. This may be because there is more than one strain of the virus. There does appear to be immunity for individual strains.
These unique characteristics make Coronavirus different from past viruses and create fear and panic.
That said, the historical virus Coronavirus should be most compared with is H1N1, the swine flu, from 2009 to 2010. For perspective, according to the CDC, H1N1 infected 1.4 billion globally, 60 million in the US, and killed 12,500 in the US (depending on sources and time frame) – all in about one year’s time. Coronavirus has not come close to these case statistics yet, though US deaths are rising and will probably pass H1N1 deaths within days. As of 4/07/20, there may be almost nineteen million+ actual cases of Coronavirus in the United States (see rationale below, in Daily Update section). [Coronavirus has currently passed H1N1 in number of deaths, but not in number of (reported) cases – see below in Daily Update].
According to MedCam (video, left), there is immunity for the virus among those who have had it (for a particular strain) and new blood tests for antibodies could eventually show the true scale of the Coronavirus pandemic. According to the the video at right, studies relative to Miami show that social distancing and isolation is the only truly effective measure for stopping the spread of the virus.
CS currently believes, and has consistently stated since this page was first published on 2/27/20 – largely due to early action by the Trump Administration and global actions to ‘flatten the curve’ – that the spread and affect of Covid-19 will be more similar to H1N1, but that US infections, hospitalizations, and deaths will be less. Globally, we believe they will remain slightly less.
[This assessment changed as of 3/31/20 – according to the President’s medical experts, Coronavirus could cause somewhere between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths over the next few months. If true, it appears that deaths will be significantly greater than H1N1, while cases may remain lower. As of 4/12/20 Coronavirus deaths in the US are 20,649, over the number of H1N1 deaths in 2009-10. As of 5/28/20, it appears that total US deaths over the next year will be lower than the higher bound number, 240,000].
Coronavirus – Daily Update
‘Fear spreads faster than the virus.’
As of today, coronavirus cases are spiking in various places in the U.S. and the world.
The United States is in the process of reopening. Each states’ reopening process is slightly different. Some states are reversing some reopening procedures.
It has been reported that light and heat may kill the virus. There may also be more infections and asymptomatic cases than previously recognized – this would mean the death rate is much lower, below 1%.
US deaths and hospitalizations do not appear to be significantly rising. The curve appears to be flattening. Brazil, Russia, India, and Spain all have a high number of cases.
Global cases are 11,168,233+, and still rising, with current globally reported deaths around 528,200+, though there are conflicting reports and actual cases and deaths may be much higher. At present, it is more deadly than the flu, but not as deadly as SARS, which was a 10% mortality rate. Fatality rate for the Coronavirus may be around 3% – as stated above, it could be less if there are more asymptomatic cases than estimated.
Current number of cases in US is 2,884,884+, and rising; there have been 132,037+ deaths in the US. Covid-19 is affecting 213 nations and territories. See this link for bi-daily updates. Coronavirus deaths have more than tripled H1N1 deaths in about one third of the time frame.
Coronavirus Fatality Rate
The Coronavirus Fatality rate is presently around 2-3%, though so far 8% of cases with outcome (closed cases) have resulted in death and it is too early to estimate a true fatality rate. (See this link for more on the fatality rate and how it is calculated). 1% of all cases become critical, mostly in 60+ year olds with previously underlying medical conditions. Some experts believe the true infected rate may be much higher which would mean that many more people may have died.
Recent Coronavirus Events And Information
Daily new cases in the US peaked on April 4. Daily new deaths peaked on April 15. Total cases and deaths are still rising.
Around the middle of April, daily new cases in the US appear to be cresting, as they have in Italy and Spain.
New York has recorded the highest number of daily deaths to date. “A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that “Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51% chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway” [source].
If the chart analysis in the video, (above left) is accurate – and it is a conservative estimate using only a 1% fatality rate – as of 4/15/20 at 11:45 am pdt:
If there are 27,586 deaths currently in the United States there are possibly 44,137,600+ actual infected people with Coronavirus – not the 622,923 reported cases (for state of CA, see below). Again, this is a conservative estimate based on data (death rate from closed cases is currently 21%) – there might be many more. This would make the figures for Covid-19 more similar to H1N1 in 2009-10 – but in approximately one quarter to one half of the time.
According to Dr. Fauci: “Unless we get this globally under control, there is a very good chance that it will assume a seasonal nature in the sense that if – and I hope it’s not only if but when – we get it down to a point where it is really at a low level, we need to be prepared. Since it will be unlikely to be completely eradicated from the planet, as we get into next season, we may see the beginning of a resurgence. And that’s why we’re pushing so hard to get our preparedness much better than it was but, importantly, pushing on a vaccine and doing clinical trials for therapeutic interventions so that hopefully, if in fact we do see that resurgence, we will have interventions that we did not have in the beginning of the situation that we’re in right now” [source]
Global cases of the virus appear to be flattening, at least temporarily. The markets are rallying on hopes of slowing virus spread. The United States Coronavirus Task Force predicted that the week before Easter may be the hardest week yet for the U.S. There are new recommendations for wearing masks in the United States. See your local governments website page for more.
March 31 the President declared that the next 2 weeks will be very tough. According to medical experts there could be as many as 240,000 deaths total during the Coronavirus surge of the next several months.
The United States has tested close to 2 million people for Covids-19. President Trump has extended the shutdown to April 30, 2020. Estimates for cases and deaths in the US have been revised upwards.
As of 4/07/20, New York has the most total Coronavirus cases with around 138,836+. California is currently fourth, behind New Jersey and Michigan, with 16,413+ cases. The United States continues to have the most cases in the world by numbers – not necessarily by percentage of population.
On 3/27/20 Los Angeles County just announced a complete shutdown of all but ‘essential’ activities until April 12, 2020. President Trump signed a $2.2 Trillion stimulus bill for the US economy.
The Coronavirus economic shutdown has caused 3.2 million jobless claims. According to Vice President Pence, testing is now available in all 50 US States. According to Dr. Deborah Birx 55% of all US cases come out of the New York City area.
According to Birx, we may just be seeing the tip of the iceberg of the number of cases thus far – or we may have the transmission of the virus wrong. There is not certainty yet. An antibody test is in the pipeline and when ready will provide greater certainty.
New York and New York City are being called the ‘epicenter’ of the virus in the US. New York has over 30,000 cases and 285 deaths. California has the 3rd highest level of cases in the US, significantly below New York, at around 2600+. One big question: Will California be New York 2-3 weeks from now? There are fears it could be, but no clear evidence yet.
President Trump has declared the goal of Easter, April 12th, for the limited opening of the nation’s business – if analysis of the emerging data confirm the safety of that act.
Hydroxychloraquine is being used against Coronavirus and individual doctors may be asked to prescribe it. Early indications are good if used early in virus onset, but more study is needed.
In general, President Trump has declared that this won’t last forever and that at some near future point the economy can gear back up while we stay in ‘social distancing’ mode. 28% of those tested in New York City are positive for Coronavirus.
The key to stopping the spread of Coronavirus in the United States is social distancing – ‘flattening the curve’ (see chart, right). If we do not begin flattening the curve immediately one estimate suggests that there will be 1 million infected in the United States in three weeks time (from March 16, 2020).
The President declared a National Emergency on Friday, March 13. The CDC also recently warned Americans to expect that the spread of the virus in the US will increase. Dr. Anne Schuchat, the CDC’s principal deputy director declared: “It’s not a question of if. It’s a question of when and how many people will be infected.”
Any useful vaccine for the virus will not be ready for mass distribution for at least one year. There is hope that anti-virals like Remdecivir, which was effective against Ebola recently, and Hydroxychloraqune, effective against malaria, might be effective now. Moderna, and several other companies, including one in Israel, are also working on an experimental vaccine. Some vaccines have now entered clinical trials, but the one year time line still holds.
Senator Amy Klobachar’s husband has tested positive for Coronavirus. The day before that, Rand Paul, Senator from Kentucky, USA, tested positive for Coronavirus.
According to a report, the CDC has said that 13% of infected cases were infected by people with no symptoms. The President and the FDA announced that Remdecivir, formerly an Ebola drug, is being made available for ‘compassionate use’ relative to Coronavirus. Clinical trials are underway for many therapies. An anti-malarial drug, Chloroquine, shows promise for use against the virus.
There are reports as of 3/19/20 that there are no new daily cases being reported in China.
The US Center For Disease Control (CDC) has warned on 3/16 against gatherings of 50 people or more for the next 8 weeks. See the link here.
President Trump and the Coronavirus Task Force recommended late on 3/16 that meetings or gatherings be limited to 10 people or less for the next 15 days. He suggested that the nation may be dealing with a number of restrictions through July or August.
See leading Harvard Doctor’s claims that Coronavirus is not as contagious or deadly as China claims. Dr. Jeremy Samuel Faust says that the real death rate is lower than 1%. See this link for his original article in Slate.
(Dr. Faust’s comments were hopeful when they were first made, though it now appears, based on information from Dr. Anthony Fauci, the CDC, and the Coronavirus Task Force, that the China reported views of contagion and other aspects of the virus may be accurate).
According to one recent source around March 14:
“There is going to be a fairly tremendous strain on our health system,” warned Dr. William Jaquis, president of the American College of Emergency Physicians. Hospitals are setting up circus-like triage tents, calling doctors out of retirement, guarding their supplies of face masks and making plans to cancel elective surgery as they brace for an expected onslaught of coronavirus patients [source]”
The World Heath Organization (WHO, a largely corrupt organization) has now declared that Coronavirus is a ‘global pandemic.’ Note that the common cold is a pandemic; the flu virus is also a pandemic. ‘Pandemic’ just means a virus or disease that is widely spread into many borders. Covid-19 is basically another type of ‘flu.’
New cases in China have been mostly declining since around March 1. Reported cases in Italy have increased. South Korean daily new cases are mostly decreasing over the last week to ten days. Italian officials have quarantined parts of Northern Italy. There are more new cases outside of China than within. The number of serious and critical cases is declining. The daily number of new deaths globally is still increasing. The number of daily cases globally is slightly increasing again as of 3/10/20. About 35% of current cases are now outside of China. Most of those are in 3 nations: S. Korea, Italy, and Iran. Cases in Spain have increased to over 5% of the total.
Part of the discrepancy of reported cases is China’s penchant for under-reporting, or in many cases, falsifying numbers. According to at least one report, China has more cases of Coronavirus than it did of SARS. SARS occurred in 2002-03.
Covid-19 is a coronavirus, like SARS in 2003 and MERS in 2015. H1N1, an influenza virus, did sweep the globe in 2009 and killed as many as 575,000. By comparison the Spanish Influenza of 1918 killed 50 million globally. The potentially huge problem with Covid-19 is that asymptomatic people may spread the virus, and screening/testing in the US – and throughout the world – has not been standardized or optimized.
In addition, there were early reports that testing-screening for the virus is only 70% effective and Chest CT Scans may be a better diagnostic tool than current screening kits. According to officials, the US will have millions of testing kits going out by the third week of March, with drive through testing available at Walmart, CVS, Walgreens and various other sites throughout the country. A government dedicated website with all the information will be functional by Sunday evening, March 15, 2020. The website can be accessed at coronavirus.gov.
Coronavirus Details On Fatality Rate And Spread
The R naut, the rate of spread of Covid-19, is 2-3. The fatality rate is somewhere around 2-3% at present, but it may be too early to estimate [Fatality rate at present appears to be in the 3%+ range]. The number of serious, critical cases and the number of deaths worldwide is declining for the moment, but at present it is up and down over the trend line. The number of nations affected by the spread is still increasing (see Daily Update below).
According to the Worldometers site, as to the R naut:
- Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5. 
- For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.
- An outbreak with a reproductive number or Growth Factor of less than 1 will gradually disappear.
- During the present interval or season, the growth factor is jumping above, then below, 1
As to the fatality rate:
- Fatality rate can change as a virus can mutate, according to epidemiologists.
- For comparison, the case fatality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.
- A Growth factor below 1 is a positive sign
Coronavirus: Individual Nations-States Data
In the US, as of 4/12/20, there are around 1,617 cases per one million people. Recently the US has passed China in number of cases, and in (reported) deaths from the virus. That said, China’s reported numbers are known to be inaccurate and low.
By comparison, in China the figure per million is 57, in Iran 853, and in Italy 2518. In Spain there are 3551 cases per one million people. In S. Korea it is 205 per one million. By contrast, the Philippines only had 42 cases per one million people. (These per million figures are based on reported cases, not likely cases, as noted for the Philippines and the state of California below.)
As of 3/23/20 Italy has 2000+ more deaths than China. As of 3/25/20 Spain has passed China in its number of deaths from Coronavirus.
As of 4/12/20 the Philippines had 4648 cases, 297 deaths, and 220 new cases in the last 24 hours. If one applies the formula in the video chart analysis from above, it is likely the the true number of cases in the Philippines as of this date is 475,200+.
As of 4/29/20 California has 46,506 cases and 1873 deaths. If one applies the formula in the video chart analysis from above, it is likely that the true number of cases (infections) in California as of this date is 2,996,800+. As of 3/26/20, in Los Angeles County the likely number of cases was 17,600+.
The danger of future spread at present is now global. We believe that nations like The Philippines and Thailand are at higher risk than presently reported, but may be protected presently by their summer seasons. It is also possible that the extremely warm weather in these countries will retard the advance of the virus. Or, that the virus will become more of a problem during their winter seasons. Only time will tell.
President Trump has suspended all flights from Europe effective Friday, March 13, 2020. He has suspended flights from the UK and Ireland as of Monday, March 16. The US State Department has advised against all travel to China and placed Level 2 warnings on travel to Japan and South Korea.
As of 3/19/20 there is a Global Health Advisory Level 4 travel warning to all international travel from the United States. There are Level 2 travel warnings to several other nations, see here. Level of future spread in the US is presently uncertain, but officials are more optimistic than pessimistic, largely due to preparedness procedures. (See a Color-coded Travel Advisory Map here).
Coronavirus: Comparison Of Spread In Nations That Did Not Initially Practice Social Distancing
- On February 15 Italy had 3 active cases of Coronavirus
- One month later, on March 15, Italy had 20,603 active cases of Coronavirus
- Daily new cases as of March 15 are still high – 3590
- On April 1 had 105,792 active cases
- Daily new cases, April 1, are 4,053 and appear to be declining slightly since March 21
- Time from first cases to flattening of the curve, or appearance that curve may be flattening: 6 weeks
- On February 15 had 0 infected
- On March 15 had 8624 active cases
- Daily new cases as of March 15 – 1209
- On March 25 had 16,715 active cases
- Daily new cases March 25 are the highest ever, 2206
- On January 22 had 554 active cases
- The Quarantine – social distancing – of Wuhan City began around January 23
- By January 27th 45 million Chinese were under quarantine in multiple cities across China
- On February 17 had 58,016 active cases
- On February 22 had 52,093 cases
- On March 15 had 9893 active cases
- On March 17 China had decreasing new daily cases on a week-week basis
- On March 25 China had 3947 active cases
- On March 25 China still has low new daily cases
- Time from first cases to flattening of the curve, or appearance that curve may be flattening: 4+ weeks (but China’s data is questionable, plus they imposed the most severe quarantine restrictions on cities)
Note the trend in the data above: The nations who have had the most cases are nations that did not practice social distancing and/or nations that allowed unrestricted access through their borders early in the life of the virus.
Once China put quarantines into effect the number of active cases rose, reached a climax, then began to come down. In China, at least, once quarantines of major cities were affected it was approximately one month to declining cases and a little over one month to declining new daily cases. New cases appear to be declining weekly in China at present. Active cases are also declining and have been in decline since February 18. Once Italy put quarantine measures into effect, it has been approximately 6 weeks to appearance that curve may be flattening.
Conclusion? If we look at the time period from when the curve in the US began to rise significantly and quarantine measures were imposed 6 weeks out that puts us at April 30 for the curve beginning to flatten.
Coronavirus: How Long?
If the above data are indicative of global and US trends once social distancing limitations are set and followed the period of severe limitation from this virus – in the US particularly – may be shorter than currently expected. CS is more optimistic and agrees with recent positive estimates that the climax or peak of this virus may be in late April to mid-May.
Coronavirus, Live Updated Map, John Hopkins University
Must Read-Israeli Professor Shows Why Coronavirus Quarantines Not Needed. Marina Medvin, Townhall
Must Read-Coronavirus: Why We Are 100 Times Safer Than We Were In Early March, Inan Dogan, PhD, Yahoo Finance/ Insider Monkey
For More On John Paul Jackson See This Link, Also, See The Spiritual Life Page
Coronavirus: Should You Delay Or Postpone Air Travel? Bruce Y. Lee, Forbes; Also see, Coronavirus: Rare Travel Upside – You Might Fly On A Better Plane, Dawn Gilbertson, USA Today
Coronavirus Flight Cuts, Delta And American, Dawn Gilbertson, USA Today; Also see, Airlines Spending Thousands In Fuel To Run ‘Ghost’ Flights In Midst Of Virus, Adam Bienkov, Business Insider; Also see, Tens Of Thousands Of Airline Jobs At Risk Due To Virus, Chris Isidore, CNN