Seaborn Hall, 8/26/18
Note: These views and research are in process. Check back monthly for new updates.
According to one source the San Andreas Fault extends from just short of Oregon all the way to the Mexican border through the entire West Coast and state of California. According to this source, in the Lancaster-Palmdale area of Southern California, the San Andreas Fault runs approximately along Elizabeth Lake Rd to Palmdale crossing Highway 14 to just north of the Aqueduct.
The fault crosses from the top of the Aqueduct and loosely follows Elizabeth Lake Rd, crossing Ranch Center Dr, all the way past Leona Valley and the community of Leona to Lake Hughes. Since the fault is not one fault, but one primary fault flanked by multiple more minor fault lines, likely all of the road and structures to both the north and south along Elizabeth Lake Rd would be at risk in a major earthquake. This holds for the part of the Palmdale community that includes the Palmdale Regional Medical Center – which appears to sit just to the north of the primary area of the fault – and the developed residential communities that are nearby (Delta Ridge, etc).
The safety of these structures would probably depend on how wide the fault is at that particular point, as well as the severity of the earthquake and stability of the ground in that area.
From the northern edge of the Aqueduct the San Andreas Fault runs approximately along Elizabeth Lake Rd through Elizabeth Lake and then continues northwest through Hughes Lake, another ‘sag pond,’ or lake that has been created from the shifting of the earth due to the fault. See this link
According to KCET.org, the Fault runs from the north tip of the aqueduct on a northwest line through both Elizabeth Lake and Lake Hughes, which are both termed ‘sag ponds.’
Weak areas have to be seen as everything from the Aqueduct all the way up to Lake Hughes and beyond. From the Aqueduct the fault runs from approximately just north of where Ave S crosses Highway 14 and continues in a line southeast all the way down through Devil’s Punchbowl Natural Area all the way to San Bernardino.
According to KCET, “The San Andreas Fault is more than a mile wide in some locations, and its signs may be as subtle as a dip in the road, a bend in railroad tracks, or a change in direction in a creek or a stream.”
According to the USGS, “The entire San Andreas fault system is more than 800 miles long and extends to depths of at least 10 miles within the Earth. In detail, the fault is a complex zone of crushed and broken rock from a few hundred feet to a mile wide. Many smaller faults branch from and join the San Andreas fault zone. Almost any road cut in the zone shows a myriad of small fractures, fault gouge (pulverized rock), and a few solid pieces of rock.”
How can you recognize the fault when you are in it?
According to USGS,
“Over much of its length, a linear trough reveals the presence of the San Andreas fault; from the air, the linear arrangement of lakes, bays, and valleys in this trough is striking. Viewed from the ground, however, the features are more subtle. For example, many people driving near Crystal Springs Reservoir, near San Francisco, or along Tomales Bay, or through Cajon or Tejon Passes may not realize that they are within the San Andreas fault zone. On the ground, the fault can be recognized by carefully inspecting the landscape. The fault zone is marked by distinctive landforms that include long straight escarpments, narrow ridges, and small undrained ponds formed by the settling of small blocks within the zone. Many stream channels characteristically jog sharply to the right where they cross the fault.”
What kind of movement might occur?
According to Sadhu Selveraj, when the Big One in CA occurs it will make the 1906 earthquake look like “child’s play.”
According to USGS, “During the 1906 earthquake in the San Francisco region, roads, fences, and rows of trees and bushes that crossed the fault were offset several yards, and the road across the head of Tomales Bay was offset almost 21 feet, the maximum offset recorded. In each case, the ground west of the fault moved relatively northward.”
There is not just one fault, but a primary fault and multiple faults flanking the primary, so both sides of the Elizabeth Lake Rd that were severely affected by the quake would likely collapse in any major quake. According to USGS,
“Sudden offset that initiates a great earthquake occurs on only one section of the fault at a time. Total offset accumulates through time in an uneven fashion, primarily by movement on first one, and then another section of the fault. The sections that produce great earthquakes remain “locked” and quiet over a hundred or more years while strain builds up; then, in great lurches, the strain is released, producing great earthquakes. Other stretches of the fault, however, apparently accommodate movement more by constant creep than by sudden offsets that generate great earthquakes. In historical times, these creeping sections have not generated earthquakes of the magnitude seen on the “locked” sections.”
According to USGS,
“A great earthquake very possibly will not occur unannounced. Such an earthquake may be preceded by an increase in seismicity for several years, possibly including several foreshocks of about magnitude 5 along the fault. Before the next large earthquake, seismologists also expect to record changes in the Earth’s surface, such as a shortening of survey lines across the fault, changes in elevation, and effects on strain meters in wells.”
What do ‘magnitude’ and ‘intensity’ mean in Earthquakes?
According to USGS,
“Magnitude is a measure of the size of an earthquake. The Richter Scale, named after Charles F. Richter of the California Institute of Technology, is the best known scale for the measuring of magnitude (M) of earthquakes. The scale is logarithmic; a recording of 7, for example, signifies a disturbance with ground motion 10 times as large as a recording of 6. The energy released by an earthquake of M 7, however, is approximately 30 times that released by an earthquake of M 6; an earthquake of M 8 releases 900 times (30×30) the energy of an earthquake of M 6. An earthquake of magnitude 2 is the smallest earthquake normally felt by humans. Earthquakes with a Richter value of 5 or higher are potentially damaging. Some of the world’s largest recorded earthquakes–on January 31, 1906, off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador, and on March 2, 1933, off the east coast of Honshu, Japan–had magnitudes of 8.9 on this scale, which is open ended.
As the Richter scale does not adequately differentiate between the largest earthquakes, a new “moment magnitude” scale is being used by seismologists to provide a better measure. On the moment magnitude scale, the San Francisco earthquake is estimated at magnitude 7.7 compared to an estimated Richter magnitude of 8.3.
Intensity is a measure of the strength of shaking experienced in an earthquake. The Modified Mercalli Scale represents the local effect or damage caused by an earthquake; the “intensity” reported at different points generally decreases away from the earthquake epicenter. The intensity range, from I – XII, is expressed in Roman numerals. For example, an earthquake of intensity II barely would be felt by people favorably situated, while intensity X would produce heavy damage, especially to unreinforced masonry. Local geologic conditions strongly influence the intensity of an earthquake. Commonly, sites on soft ground or alluvium have intensities 2 to 3 units higher than sites on bedrock.”
Sadhu Selveraj And His Comments Relative To The Film, ‘San Andreas’, Starring Dwight Johnson (The Rock)
Sadhu Selveraj says that Jesus appeared to him while he was in Costa Mesa recently – just before the Houston flooding – and told him that the whole state of CA will be destroyed by an earthquake. Shortly after, in 2015, the film San Andreas was released. According to Sadhu, the San Andreas Fault line, as portrayed in the film, is exactly where he saw a line of angels standing ready to set off the fault line to destroy the state.
According to some experts discussing the film the scenes portrayed in San Andreas, which stars Dwayne Johnson and Carla Gugino, the devastation portrayed is overly dramatic and not entirely realistic. According to one report in The Guardian by an engineer, the Hoover Dam is unlikely to be destroyed, or destroyed in that manner, by a 7.1 Richter scale quake. Likewise, buildings would not come down as fast or devastation be as wide. Neither would fissures or cracks in the ground appear around the fault. How accurate this analysis is is not clear – it is just one opinion, and not from a seismologist.
According to Separating Five Facts From The Film, trigger events as far away as a neighboring state don’t occur, a tsunami, in the unlikely event there was one, would not be near as high or inundating as the film’s, cracks and fissures might occur along the fault but would not be as wide to swallow up cars and buildings, most skyscrapers would survive, and the East Coast would not feel the quake. That said, most experts don’t seem to believe a 9.6 quake like that depicted in the film would occur. That would be the greatest earthquake in the world at this point in time, so who knows what the devastation would look like?
Regardless, the real challenge would be survival after the quake which the film does not begin to depict. Water mains and pipes would likely be broken, oil and gas lines malfunctioning, air conditioning and heating down. Most masonry buildings in major cities would be devastated or at least unsafe.
Looting and rioting would probably be common. Rapes, burglary, and other crimes would likely skyrocket as police would be busy with emergency services. Bridges might be down and roads might be too broken up or moved out of place for safe travel. Airports and train tracks the same. As one article lays out there would likely be hundreds of thousands of CA refugees needing camps or other places to stay, many of them seeking refuge outside of the major cities or in neighboring states.
According to the most authoritative article on the movie which quotes a seismologist and the USGS, “Drop, cover, and hold on!,” and taking cover and bracing against a strong wall are the two best pieces of advice in the film. There is no exact predictive science for earthquakes and according to some experts there likely never will be. This article essentially affirms what the prior ones do, with the exception that a 2008 USGS study found that several skyscrapers might collapse and that an 8.3 quake would be the very largest thought possible off of the San Andreas fault. Apparently, it is not deep or wide enough for something larger; but, even a 7.8 to 8.3 quake would cause massive destruction.
Another article confirms the above view and points out that faults do not split apart creating large crevices because, in the SA Fault in particular, the plates of the earth slip and slide past each other. This will cause the ground to shake and even shift – but not create large crevices.
Evaluating Two Warnings Relative to West Coast Destruction:
1 – West Coast Seismic Alert: Mount Ranier and Mount St. Helen Again Concerns, MIchael Snyder, Charisma
2 – Alaska Earthquakes Cause ‘West Coast Concern Big One Is Coming’, Michael Snyder, themostimportantnews.com
CS has been critical of some of Snyder’s ‘warnings’ in the past and this time is no different – though occasionally he does provide useful and good information. But, in most instances, we place his diatribes in the same category as Chicken Little’s or ‘The Little Boy Who Cried Wolf.’ The first reference, above, links to the 2nd, which Snyder offers as ‘support’ for some of his arguments in the first piece.
Have major prophets prophesied of West Coast destruction, in general? Yes. Have prophets predicted Northwest earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that cause mass death? Yes.
Whether these things have been predicted is not the point; neither is the fact that natural signs are beginning to occur. The point relative to our criticism is when the timing of these things will occur and whether it is wise to participate in alarmist reports that cause panic or presumptuous actions on the part of people who may believe them.
Just one piece of information in Snyder’s second article will suffice as an example of its alarmist bent. We are encouraged to believe that because there has been a prophecy that links the Big One to increasing shark attacks, and shark attacks have been reported to increase, that the Big One may soon be coming to California. But, the “prophecy” is from a little used, unknown website, from an unknown voice – prophetic? Who knows? – and the interpretation of this “prophecy” is useless because we don’t know the voice, nor do we have any idea of the context in which the supposed “revelation” occurred.
Further, when just a little investigation is pursued relative to “increasing shark attacks” what one finds is not increased shark attacks, but increased human activity in the water leading to more attacks. This, according to most experts and more than one article. And, though sharks have an electrical sense there appears to be no evidence that they sense or that their behavior predicts a coming earthquake.
If one looks closer at the first article on Mount Ranier and Mount St. Helens, one finds that the source Snyder uses to alarm us about one nearby volcanic eruption describes the eruptions in this way: “Each of these eruptive cycles can be months to many months,” Schwaiger said. “It wasn’t the strongest of the eruptions in this sequence.” So, the meaning of this volcanic eruption or its sequence is unclear. And if one references Wikipedia on volcanic eruptions one finds that volcanic eruptions are classified much like earthquakes and that eruptions below a certain level (2-3) are consistent and almost monthly; others are also detected on a slower but regular basis. So, Snyder’s information may show only normality – and not be cause for alarm.
Summary And Conclusion On Lancaster, CA As A Refuge In ‘The Big One’
The above is only one example from each article of the erroneous nature of the information given. The reader is encouraged to be critical whenever someone draws the conclusion that the world is about to immediately come to an end.
Here at CS, we respect and believe genuine prophetic words – but we have much skepticism concerning interpretive and timing issues and counsel wisdom rooted in Biblical knowledge, experience, and pain-staking research before you make an investment, sell your home, move across the country, or to another state – or make some life-changing decision not to have a family or kids based on irrelevant and alarmist interpretations of what may be based in a genuine prophetic pronouncement.
As Kenneth Hagin Sr once said – no where in the Bible does it say that we are to be led by prophecy. It does say, however, that the sons of God are led by the Spirit of God (Romans 8). The Spirit gives wisdom and counsel. And we have the mind of Christ (1 Corinthians 2). Let us partake of that Spirit and that mind before jumping off a cliff into the dark below.